It is speculative if the UK will still be a member of the European Union in 2020. However, pundits simplistically narrow the perspective outcome to a party choice: “… anyone whose overriding passion is for Britain to stay in the EU should vote Conservative – while anyone desperate to maximise the chances of quitting the club should vote Labour.”

According to YouGov, voters agree that if any debate to stay or leave the EU is to be had, now is the time to have it. Currently, voters wanting the UK out of the EU outnumber those who are content with the current environment. YouGov’s latest poll (21-22 April) indicates a growing gap in favor of those wanting the UK to pull out. However, when asked if Cameron renegotiated Britain’s interests, and successfully transferred power back to Westminster from Brussels, the gap closes and more voters are in favor of staying in the EU.

Looking at the 2015 election, if Cameron wins, a referendum will be held to determine continued EU membership. If Miliband wins, and he opposes a referendum and the UK will undoubtedly remain in the EU at least until 2020. If Miliband wins, and accepts a referendum on UK membership, the tipping point will rest with the opposition party.